Part 1
By Peter Cary, Contributing Writer
When Mike Turner, a retired Air Force colonel and pilot, became a Loudoun County supervisor, he had a lot to be proud of. The year was 2020, and his Ashburn district, known as Data Center Alley, hosted the largest–and still growing--concentration of data centers in the world.
Five years later he is not so much proud as worried. In a 38-page paper he delivered to his board last year, he argued that Dominion Energy could not produce enough power to meet the future demands of the data centers that had made his county famous. With artificial intelligence suddenly exploding, by 2028 the data center power load in Loudoun could be 10 times what it was when he took office.
“The imbalance between demand and power available right now is extreme and getting worse,” Turner said in August. “We are experiencing what’s effectively another industrial revolution – it’s a digital revolution.”
There’s new evidence he might be right. On July 7, the U.S. Department of Energy dropped a bombshell: a report saying eastern and northern Virginia could see blackouts of up to 450 hours a year in five years unless things change fast.
The big problem, the department said, is that AI data center energy demand is surging while coal, fuel oil and gas power plants are retiring. It said fossil fuel plants need to stay on and even more need to be built, echoing the Trump administration doctrine, which also wants a doubling-down on nuclear power.
Clean-air advocates said that the energy report was a ruse to keep old coal and oil plants running, that solar and wind projects could fill future needs. But the Trump administration is blocking numerous green projects – its latest target is wind power – making the energy deficit even worse.
The effects on residents and businesses are not to be underestimated. Power bills are already going up. Blackouts would mean traffic lights out, no air conditioning or heat, spoiled food. Those with means turn on backup home generators, throwing off noise and fumes that damage both the environment and community peace. Not to mention the noise and fumes from the banks of diesel generators that flank every Virginia data center and kick in when the power goes down.
Even data center operators fear the grid won’t be able to power them–some are taking steps to build their own small nuclear reactors.
That won’t happen in his county, Turner said. So what will happen?
In a series of coming in-depth stories, the Fauquier Times and Prince William Times explore the repercussions of this energy crisis – the urgency of the problem, the power the industry wields, the price to be paid, and potential solutions. Some findings:
Utilities are scrambling. PJM Interconnection, which manages the electric grid in 13 states, including Virginia, got permission to take hurry-up bids for 51 new power plants and upgrades. But it will need to build three times more generation in just five years–and then things get worse.
Consumers — not data center companies — will pay. Virginia’s largest power company, Dominion, estimates that the average monthly electric bill will double in the next 10 years. That’s mainly due to the cost of data center infrastructure.
Co-op faces a daunting future. The Rappahannock Electric Cooperative expects to go from hosting no data centers to possibly dozens in a decade, requiring more power than it takes to run New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles together. The CEO is scrambling to manage enormous risks and challenges.
A tech alliance is getting richer. Some call for a data center slowdown, but the massive projects are hard to stop because all participants — data companies, developers, utilities and governments — earn astounding amounts of money. Profit margins at major data center companies approach 50 percent.
The alliance flexes its political might. Since 2022, data centers and utilities have contributed more than $20 million to Virginia legislators, and not a single data center reform bill passed this year — nor did any bill that would adversely affect Dominion Energy. Locally, too, candidates in data-center-rich counties have seen thousands of dollars in contributions as they approve the energy-hungry projects.
More nuclear energy is looming. The world’s biggest tech companies are betting big on a ramp-up of nuclear power, especially smaller “modular” plants, which have yet to be tried in the United States. But the demand that is projected could require the equivalent power production of 60 nuclear plants for PJM’s grid alone in 10 years.
None of the solutions is easy. An independent state legislative audit warned that the power deficit is real, it is huge, and it engulfs the entire state.
Even if data centers grow only moderately, utilities would have to double their generating power, add 35% more transmission lines and still import 55% of the power they need from other states, said Mark Gribbin, the leader of the audit team, in explaining its findings to regulators.
The challenges are enormous.
Building power plants and transmission lines takes years and tremendous amounts of money — the spike in energy demand is coming too fast.
Burning more coal and adding gas-powered generators spark fierce debates over climate change. President Trump has eliminated subsidies for solar, wants to cancel all wind projects, and is trying to expedite nuclear buildout. Nuclear power raises fears about safety and waste disposal. And any way of serving the demand brings new power lines, arguments over sacrificed farmland and often expensive and drawn-out lawsuits.
The first of four planned Microsoft data centers is being built next to the Chris Yung Elementary School and the Lanier Farms neighborhood in Bristow.
A third solution might be to slow the onslaught of data centers themselves – or turn off their power when the grid is stressed. But the industry is one of the most profitable in the world, and it is fighting all efforts at regulation, while citizens who resist its expansion don’t have its money or clout. Meanwhile, the state’s -– the nation’s, the world’s -– rapacious hunger for data only intensifies.
Thus more data centers are seeking permits, in Northern Virginia, but now also downstate, to Fredericksburg, Culpeper and Richmond. And other states that Virginia might turn to for power, such as Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania, are experiencing their own data center surges.
“They are not going to stop building,” said Kevin O’Neill of Warrenton at a Fauquier County Board of Supervisors meeting Aug. 14. “They are not going to stop putting up the electrical wires. And all of us are going to pay the electrical bills that will come due because of the increased need for power.”
What can Virginia do to avoid this grim future? Turner tried to come up with solutions but didn’t see many good options. Utilities might cap power to data centers, a tech solution might appear that enables data centers to use less power, or data centers might try to power themselves with small nuclear reactors, he wrote.
All three had drawbacks, he said. One other possibility might be local governments simply saying no to new data centers.
“We get emails every week, every day. ‘Stop building data centers.’ And at some point you’ve got to listen to your constituents,” Turner said.
But even if energy supply troubles slow or halt data center development – Dominion has put a hold of up to seven years on new hookups – existing data centers that have AI components or add them will drive up energy demand “far in excess” of Dominion’s ability to meet it.
In the end, Turner said, market forces may push data centers away from Virginia. With Dominion already delaying hookups, the cost of electricity in the commonwealth rising, and residents opposing new applicants, data centers have begun looking elsewhere. The supervisor said he has been contacted by public officials in Indiana, Georgia, Kentucky and Pennsylvania who are being courted by data centers.
“They have no idea what a data center is,” Turner said. “They read my paper and said, ‘Hey, can you answer some questions?’”
A Project by the Fauquier Times and Prince William Times
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